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MLB betting tips for August 4th, 2023.
3-1-1 last night. 8-3 this month on Patreon.
W Giants Moneyline
L Astros/Yankees Over 8.5 Runs
W Cubs Moneyline
PUSH Mariners/Angels Over 8 Runs
W Dodgers -1.5
Astros/Yankees had five runs through two and landed at 7. Two runners on base in the ninth with Altuve at the plate could’ve locked in the win, but he didn’t come through. So close. Then an absolutely insane ending to Mariners/Angels that earned us the push and might’ve ended the Angels playoff hopes. That was demoralizing. #goms
Six bets today on Patreon, three are available below.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
WSN – Patrick Corbin
CIN – Graham Ashcraft
The Reds return home and it should be a kind return with Corbin on the mound. He’s struggled for years now and has been even worse on the road this season with a 5.43 ERA/6.18 FIP. The Reds are a better offense against lefties, especially in the home run department. The Nats bullpen behind him has been one of the worst in the league all season.
A lot of ways to bet this one, but I have Reds as one of the highest scoring teams of the day so I’m going team over.
Reds Over 5.5 Runs (-117)
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
TBR – Zack Littell
DET – Reese Olson
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
NYM – David Peterson
BAL – Dean Kremer
The Mets are coming off a series loss to the Royals and feel like they have just thrown in the towel. I’d probably like this game without knowing that, but it certainly helps.
Peterson is an average-ish pitcher in a tough road match-up. A small sample, but Peterson has a 8.41 ERA/5.05 FIP on the road this season. The Orioles offense is much better against lefties with a 111 wRC+.
Kremer has a tough season, but he’s been better of late and the projections have him being stronger down the stretch. He has a 3.45 ERA/4.32 FIP over his last five starts. He’s enough of a risk to keep me off the F5, but I trust the bullpen fully as they have been one of the best in the game this season.
Orioles Moneyline (-152)
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
TOR – Alek Manoah
BOS – James Paxton
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Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
COL – Chris Flexen
STL – Adam Wainwright
I thought Flexen was absolutely insane to sign with the Rockies when he hit free agency. He’s not that bad of a pitcher, but this is absolutely not the place he should be as he relies way too much on contact. He should fire his agent.
I was really kicking myself not going against him in his first start at Coors, but I won’t make that mistake again here. The Cardinals offense was basically untouched by the deadline and has a 110 wRC+ against righties.
Wainwright is whatever. He’s not good, but he’s not going to be as bad as Flexen and his match-up is much easier.
Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
PIT – Quinn Priester
MIL – Colin Rea