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MLB betting tips for July 26th, 2023.
5-0 last night on Patreon!
W Rays -0.5 First 5 Innings
W Rockies/Nationals Over 9 Runs
W Guardians -0.5 First 5 Innings
W Mariners/Twins Over 7.5
W Dodgers Moneyline
Boom! How about that?
That Dodgers game was so crazy. I had put it on before bed and had marked it as a loss after the Jays scored three in the top of the ninth. How silly of me that turned out to be as the Dodgers scored four in the ninth to force extras and won it in the tenth. Unbelievable. I love LA.
That takes us to 39-25 for the month and it is looking like July will be the most profitable month of the season thus far. Let’s keep it going.
Four bets today on Patreon, two are available below.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
CIN – Ben Lively
MIL – Freddy Peralta
Every game these two teams play is close and low scoring, and I expect today to be much of the same. The last six games between these two have gone under the total.
Lively has pitched quite well of late with a 3.38 ERA/4.74 FIP over his last five starts. He doesn’t go deep, but that does include two games allowing just one run to the Brewers. Milwaukee’s offense has an 89 wRC+ against righties and an 82 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Peralta has been down of late, but he has the strikeout stuff and he’s been better at home this season. The Reds offense has just a 75 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The bullpen behind him has been outstanding with just a 52 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Reds/Brewers Under 9 Runs (-122)
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
TOR – Yusei Kikuchi
LAD – Tony Gonsolin
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
ATL – Spencer Strider
BOS – Brayan Bello
Strider has been one of the top pitchers in the league this season and he’s hard to go against. He has a 3.38 ERA/2.25 FIP over his last five starts. The Red Sox offense is pretty dang good and hits well at home, but he will challenge them.
Bello is the key here as I think the Braves hit him hard. He has a 4.50 ERA/5.70 FIP over his last four starts. The Braves have a 115 wRC+ against righties and a 117 wRC+ over the past month. This is a hitter’s park and these are some hitters.
Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
New York Mets at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
NYM – Jose Quintana
NYY – Carlos Rodon