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Winning start with the NFL Tips, although a tad fortunate. Had Addison over 42.5 receiving yards as I thought he would be a volume WR. As it is he had just 3 receptions as the D gave him a lot of respect. Thankfully one of them was a bomb and it was all good.
Looking through this weeks games as a reminder I’ll be focusing primarily on player props this season. I just feel it reduces the variance in a big way. Takes out so many other factors in a game.
I’ll also try and post a quick thought for every game even if not betting it. I make these notes anyway (and a lot more) so always good to post them.
Falcons vs Packers: I was really tempted by the Under 215.5 passing yards for Jordan Love. I had my concerns watching him last week. However with Jones looking out, I think we will see them pass it more.
Bills vs Raiders: Bleh. I’m actually a bit tempted by the under based on Bills performance last week, and then Jimmy G game managing. But we know the Bills can go off. Not liking it enough.
Bengals vs Ravens: Both teams I need to see more from them. Bengals were a big concern. Ravens we didn’t see the offense we were expecting.
Lions vs Seahawks: This is one where the Lions -4.5 is tempting.. Just overall, I feel they are the better team. Yeah I am sure Geno will perform better, but I feel Lions should be able to put the pressure on enough.
But I’m going with Sam LaPorta Over 35.5 Receiving Yards. Seahawks last year were a good team to go with tight ends against, looked similar last week, and I think with the options available, LaPort will get a decent amount of action.
Very tempted by that -4.5 as well. Yeah I’m going to add Lions -4.5.
Titans vs Chargers: Gotta go with Herbert Over 284.5. This is a team he should be passing against a lot. The Titans secondary is weak and with Fulton and Hooker out plus Ekeler not playing – yeah dude has to be passing it a ton.
Bucs vs Bears: Nothing for this one. Bears offense seems a real roll the dice – if they can wisen up after some bad playcalling etc last week.
Jaguars vs Chiefs: Jags are another one where I need to see them more. In theory, Lawrence should have a big game but I’m not super confident in it. I do think we’ll see Mahomes lean on Kelce more, but over 77.5 receiving yards feels a bit hefty. I do expect him to get it but eh.
Texans vs Colts: That Stroud injury is putting me off this one. Otherwise, I’d take the over. Think this will be a fast paced game but that injury is a concern.
3 more bets in the Rams/9ers, Cowboys/Jets and SNF game only on Patreon