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MLB betting tips for September 6th, 2023.
4-2 last night on Patreon.
W Rays Moneyline
L Mariners Moneyline
W Yankees Over 4.5 Runs
W Cubs Moneyline
W Orioles Over 4.5 Runs
L Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings
The bullpen killed us in the Mariners game, nearly killed us in the Rays game, and then the bullpen helped push us over the top with the Orioles. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Five bets today on Patreon, three are below.
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
SFG – Alex Wood
CHC – Jordan Wicks
Last night was definitely a classic Wrigley game and this could be as well. While not as good as last night, winds are still blowing out and it’s still plenty warm.
Once again, I am sticking with the Cubs over any over. Even after last night I just don’t trust this Giants offense. Jordan Wicks has looked really strong in his two major league starts.
The draw here is the Cubs offense, of course. They have been much better at home and have power. Wood should start here, but he won’t go long as the Giants almost exclusively pitch by committee these days. Wood has been quite lucky with a 2.60 ERA/3.72 FIP/4.98 xFIP in his last seven appearances. A low HR/FB rate helped and a day like today kind of wipes out that luck. He’s not a big strikeout guy and the fatigue is starting to show in this bullpen.
Cubs Moneyline (-139)
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
COL – Chris Flexen
ARI – Zach Davies
Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
SEA – Logan Gilbert
CIN – Lyon Richardson
The Seattle bullpen was the downfall last night so we’re staying away from it here. They were up 5-1 after five and I think they can repeat that here.
Gilbert has been killing it with a 2.32 ERA/3.84 FIP over his last five starts. The Reds are a below average offense.
Richardson is the key here. A small sample, but his last two starts have him with a 5.00 ERA/5.81 FIP with huge walks. He has good stuff, but no control as with high walk totals throughout the minors. The Mariners have a 108 wRC+ against righties and a 136 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Mariners -0.5 FIrst 5 Innings (-115)
St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
STL – Dakota Hudson
ATL – Spencer Strider
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
CHW – Touki Toussaint
KCR – Jordan Lyles
You couldn’t ask for a better pitching match-up from a hitting perspective.
Lyles has a 6.47 ERA/7.01 FIP over his last five starts. Toussaint has a 6.56 ERA/5.96 FIP in his last five. Both bullpens are in the bottom half of the league and pitching worse of late.
Neither offense is particularly exciting, but they are both playing above their season averages right now.
White Sox/Royals Over 9.5 Runs (-125)