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MLB betting tips for April 16th, 2024.
2-1 last night on Patreon. 31-23 this season.
W Giants Moneyline (-112)
L Phillies -1.5 (-126)
W Angels/Rays Over 8 Runs (-117)
The Phillies win by one in extras as the offense remains cold.
The other two were tight down to the end, but all is well that ends well.
It’s still in the testing phase, but I am working on adding a feature for Home Run props. I am applying the same rules I use for the System to individual players instead of teams as a whole. I’ve had some nice results so far, but there is still a lot of noise and I want to see more results before launching it, hopefully by next month.
In case you missed it yesterday, I am now betting full units on all games.
Tonight I will have tips for the NBA Play-In tournament on Patreon. I plan to have tips for every game of the NBA Playoffs.
Four bets today.
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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
MIN – Chris Paddack
BAL – Grayson Rodriguez
Grayson Rodriguez looked like a breakout candidate heading into the year and he’s lived up to it thus far. He has a 2.50 ERA/3.89 FIP over his first three starts with a huge strikeout rate.
The Twins offense has started cold with just a 77 wRC+ against righties with one of the league’s worst strikeout rates. I think they are going to have a hard time with Rodriguez.
Minnesota ranks 30th in baseball in runs per game in the first five innings.
Paddack has looked okay to start the year after only making two starts all of last season and just five starts the year before. He has allowed a home run in his first two games though.
The match-up is the thing here. The Orioles have a 127 wRC+ against righties this season with the league’s best isolated slugging against them and one of the lowest strikeout rates.
Orioles -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
COL – Austin Gomber
PHI – Ranger Suárez
The Phillies offense let us down last night, but they’ll get another nice shot at it today. Gomber has a 4.91 ERA/5.61 FIP thus far. Big walks and a big home run rate are his downfall and the Phillies have been much better against lefties to start.
The Rockies are not very good against lefties. They face Suarez here who is having a great start to the year with a 2.65 ERA/3.22 FIP with a huge 10.06 K/9 rate. He’s been lucky with BABIP, but I’m not too worried about that in this match-up.
The bullpen difference here is still quite large and the Phillies should get it done here.
Phillies -1.5 (-126)
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
SDP – Dylan Cease
MIL – Wade Miley
The Brewers have been one of the best over teams in baseball thus far, going over in eleven out of fifteen games, including going over in eight straight games.
Their offense has been a big part of that as they have a 136 wRC+ against righties thus far this season. Cease is quite good, but I think he’s been a bit lucky thus far. He has a low HR/FB rate with a .179 BABIP. Those won’t continue.
Wade Miley will give up runs. The projections have him at 4.34 ERA/4.87 FIP this season, a below-average starter. The Padres have been excellent against lefties thus far with a 126 wRC+ with the league’s best walk rate and isolated slugging.
These bullpens are both average to slightly above average thus far. This game feels like a lot of overs I’ve bet of late where it feels like a nine-run game more than an eight.
Padres/Brewers Over 8 Runs (-122)
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Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
CHC – Kyle Hendricks
ARI – Tommy Henry
Hendricks has allowed five runs in each of his first three starts. His homer rate is huge right now with five allowed in three games. He’s had a bit of bad luck in BABIP and left-on-base percentage, but I think that has more to do with him not being good than the gods being against him. He’s just been bad, and when you don’t strike anyone out – that can go really bad.
Henry hasn’t been great thus far, but he’s been better than that. This is a lot kinder match-up than his last two starts, at the Braves and Coors Field. I’m also down on the Cubs with the news of Seiya Suzuki hitting the injured list. He’s been their best hitter against lefties this season.
Diamondbacks are also at home and have a slightly better bullpen.
Diamondbacks Moneyline (-126)
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