The first Masters 1000 tournament of the season begins on Wednesday when the biggest and the best in the tennis world descend on Indian Wells for the BNP Paribas Open, the first leg of the ‘Sunshine Slam’.
Carlos Alcaraz enjoyed life in California last year when he beat Daniil Medvedev to win the title and the Spaniard will be back in Indian Wells looking to make a successful defence of the crown but some big names will be out to stop him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Carlos Alcaraz
2022 – Taylor Fritz
2021 – Cameron Norrie
2019 – Dominic Thiem
2018 – Juan Martin del Potro
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Rafael Nadal
The Format
This tournament is in keeping with the usual Masters 1000 format. 96 players will begin the tournament with 32 seeded players who receive byes into the second round with the other 64 men battling it out to face a seed in that stage of the tournament. Every match in the event is the best of three sets and there is a normal tiebreak in the final set. The draw has been announced and is played out as drawn in the bracket.
Top Quarter
The multiple time winner of this tournament, Novak Djokovic, is back at Indian Wells for the first time since the pandemic and the world number one has been placed right at the top of the bracket for the draw. He is scheduled to collide with Hubert Hurkacz if the draw goes to the seeding but there are six other seeds looking to stop that from happening. One of them is Casper Ruud, who went well in Acapulco last week, while the former champion Cameron Norrie is in this quarter too, as are Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
Such is the way that these extended Masters 1000 draws are produced now there are 16 unseeded players in each quarter who will all battle with each other to set up a clash with a seed in the second round. Gael Monfils is very much the standout name of those in the top section of the draw but Max Purcell had a promising 2023 in singles and will look to build on that. Others to note include Lorenzo Sonego, Miomir Kecmanovic and Arthur Fils.
Second Quarter
The beaten finalist of a year ago in Daniil Medvedev is the top draw in the second quarter over the course of this tournament. That run went very much against the struggles he had previously had in this event and it will be interesting to see if he builds on that or whether that was a blip. His run in the Australian Open clearly took a lot out of him as he has barely been seen since, which is a contrast to last year when he had arrived here with two titles under his belt. Holger Rune awaits for him in the quarter final if both make it that far but out to stop him are the former winner Taylor Fritz, who loves it here, Lorenzo Musetti, Sebastian Baez, who has been going well on the South American clay courts recently, Grigor Dimitrov, Adrian Mannarino and Seb Korda.
I mentioned above about there being 16 unseeded players in each quarter and we have the standout name of them all in this section of the draw as Rafael Nadal makes his return to America in this tournament. He isn’t the only unseeded household name in this quarter though. Milos Raonic has a good for this place but he has drawn Nadal in the first round, while Fabio Fognini, Stan Wawrinka and Denis Shapovalov have all had big moments in the sport in their career. Botip van de Zandschulp and Alejando Tabilo could be ones to watch out for.
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Third Quarter
The Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner will be competing in his first Masters 1000 event since he climbed the Grand Slam mountain and he is the top seed in the third quarter where if everything goes to the rankings he will come up against the controversial Andrey Rublev, who might have a point to prove after his default in Dubai last week. The six seeds in this quarter looking to stop that from happening are Jan-Lennard Struff, Francisco Cerundolo, Ben Shelton, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Frances Tiafoe and Jiri Lehecka.
The other really standout name among the unseeded players in the draw for this tournament sits in the third quarter of it where Andy Murray could be playing in Indian Wells for the final time. Christopher Eubanks burst onto the scene last summer and in theory his big serve should be a weapon here while Brandon Nakashima will be looking to make the most of a home wildcard. David Goffin, Dusan Lajovic, Emil Ruusuvuori, Lucas Pouille, Borna Coric and Thanasi Kokkinakis are another recognisable names.
Bottom Quarter
You have to go right down to the bottom of the draw bracket for the place where the defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is housed. He arrives here under a bit of an injury cloud which could interest Alexander Zverev, who is scheduled to face the Spaniard in the quarter final. The men out to stop that match from happening are Tallon Griekspoor, Alexander Bublik, Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov, Nicolas Jarry and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
This is probably the weaker of the quarters as far as the unseeded players are concerned but the rising British hope Jack Draper is in this section and he might fancy his chances of a deep run if he is fit. Jordan Thompson has a win over Rafael Nadal on his CV this season and he is in this quarter while Taro Daniel is another who has been around the scene for quite a while. Alexei Popyrin has the big serve that can go well here while Luca Van Assche could be an outsider who runs well.
Betting
You could argue that Alexander Zverev has a poor record here and when you look at the fact he has only been to the quarter final once in his seven attempts that is an easy argument to make but when you look a little deeper into things it isn’t as bad as it looks. He reached the last 16 here last year when making his way back from that horrendous injury at the French Open in 2022 and lost out in an epic three-setter to Daniil Medvedev, which certainly isn’t a terrible result. Prior to that his two exits, in the second round in 2022 to Tommy Paul and the quarter final against Taylor Fritz in 2021, both came in deciding set tiebreaks so a point here or there and he could have gone deep in those events. Zverev arrives off the back of the Australian Open semi-final where he beat Carlos Alcaraz convincingly in the quarter final and although he hasn’t pulled up trees since we know his big serve is a weapon here. If he can avoid getting into a cliffhanging tiebreak in the earlier rounds, and the draw is there for him to do that, then he should go well here at a bigger price than I was expecting.
Hubert Hurkacz has a decent enough record here with a couple of quarter finals and a last 16 effort in his last four visits here and that shouldn’t be a surprise because he has that big serve and powerful forehand that can be a decent combination here. If you look at past winners such as Juan Martin del Potro and Taylor Fritz in particular that is the hallmark of their game so there is no reason why the Pole shouldn’t go well in these conditions. He is now at the level of the game where he is seeded to reach the quarter final here. Unfortunately for him he might have to go against Novak Djokovic in the last eight but there is plenty of tennis to be played before then. Even then, Hurkacz is getting closer to beating Djokovic, who could be rusty having not played since an up and down Australian Open. At the prices, with only really Djokovic a concern in the top half, I think Hurkacz is worth a go.
Tips
Back A.Zverev to win BNP Paribas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Sky Bet (1/2 1-2)
Back H.Hurkacz to win BNP Paribas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
