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MLB Betting Tips for August 29th, 2023.
5-1 last night on Patreon!
W Phillies Moneyline
W Orioles -1.5
W Astros/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs
W Padres -0.5 First 5 Innings
L Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings
W Mariners Over 4.5 Runs
An almost perfect night ruined by the Braves of all teams. They were up 4-2 at the top of the fifth and allowed the Rockies to tie. They then went on to score ten more runs so it was the right idea just the wrong play.
Seven bets today on Patreon. Four are below.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
TBR – Aaron Civale
MIA – Sandy Alcantara
Civale has been an incredible pickup with a 2.73 ERA/2.51 FIP over his last five starts. It’s been some luck with a low home run rate, but it looks like a really great addition for the Rays. I like his match-up today as the Marlins have just an 89 wRC+ against righties and a 76 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Alcantara is solid, but this Rays offense is something else and he hasn’t been as good as Civale. They have a 119 wRC+ against righties on the season and a 133 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
I have these bullpens as roughly even, but we know teams play them differently with a lead. I believe the Rays will have that lead and hold on.
Rays Moneyline (+108)
Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
LAA – Tyler Anderson
PHI – Michael Lorenzen
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
CLE – Gavin Williams
MIN – Pablo Lopez
A good pitching match-up here, but the Twins offense is just killing it right now. They have a 109 wRC+ against righties and a 133 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They are also a ridiculously better offensive team at home with a 117 wRC+ in Minneapolis.
The Guardians offense leaves a lot to be desired with just a 79 wRC+ over the past month and 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Pablo Lopez is the better of the two starters with a 1.80 ERA/3.01 FIP over the last five years.
Twins Moneyline (-160)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
PIT – Luis L. Ortiz
KCR – Cole Ragans
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
OAK – Ken Waldichuk
SEA – George Kirby
Hey, this is pretty great. The Mariners are just dominating and the match-ups keep getting better.
Kirby is making a little Cy Young push with 2.48 ERA/2.91 FIP over his last five starts. He’s got the greatest control in the league, a good groundball rate, and keeps the ball in the park. The Athletics stink and I expect him to dominate. The Mariners bullpen is one of the best around.
The Mariners have a 178 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They can’t miss and Waldichuk gets hit hard. The Athletics bullpen gets hit even harder.
Mariners -1.5 (-135)
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Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
CIN – Brandon Williamson
SFG – Alex Cobb
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
ARI – Merrill Kelly
LAD – Clayton Kershaw
I don’t like going against Kershaw, but he hasn’t looked amazing in his first three starts since coming off the IL with a 2.25 ERA/5.61 FIP/4.15 xFIP. Small sample, of course, but he’s allowed a home run in each of them and the Diamondbacks are heating up right now with a 110 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Of course, I expect the Dodgers to do the majority of the scoring here. They have a 115 wRC+ against righties, a 117 wRC+ over the past two weeks, and a 121 wRC+ at home. Kelly has been solid, but the bullpen has been a mess for Arizona. They can chase Kelly early and get in there.
Diamondbacks/Dodgers Over 8 Runs (-100)
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