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NBA betting tips for February 29th, 2024.
2-1 last night on Patreon.
W Pelicans/Pacers Under 237.5
L Kings +8
W Lakers/Clippers Under 234.5
A close one with the Pelicans/Pacers as it landed right at 237.
The Lakers/Clippers wasn’t as scary for the total, but it did end up being a pretty great game with the Lakers making a huge 19-point comeback in the fourth.
The one loss was the Kings who didn’t end up playing De’Aaron Fox. I had assumed he would play, but if I knew he was out I probably would’ve skipped that one.
It’s a free day so today’s Patreon post is free. NBA bets are up for the year and up for the month on Patreon. I’ve not been able to post on this site as much because I’ve been posting later in the day to get a more accurate injury report. If you like these tips, consider giving the Patreon a try.
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Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic Betting Tips:
The Magic are kind of a forgotten team for me, but that’s been to my detriment as they’ve been an amazing home team this season. The Magic are 18-8 against the spread in home games this season, the second best record in the NBA. I think they are going to add to that total tonight.
Utah has some really good parts, but they are building towards something bigger so they don’t really care about this season. The trade deadline saw them make trades to open up playing time for younger players. Including deadline day, the Jazz are 1-7 since that point.
The Jazz are not a great road team with a -10.7 Net Rating. On the season, they have a straight-up record of 9-21 on the road.
The Magic have been playing well of late with a 9-3 record over their last twelve games.
Magic -6.5
Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks Betting Tips:
If this was the healthy version of the Knicks I’d be all over them tonight, but this is far from that.
No Randle, Robinson, or Anunoby tonight, and now Jalen Brunson is listed as questionable. The Knicks have the NBA’s worst Defensive Rating over the last ten games. Tonight, they face the Warriors who have a +8.9 Net Rating over their last ten games.
The Warriors are 8-4 ATS as a road favorite this season. The Knicks are 3-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Warriors -4.5
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs Betting Tips:
A big spread here, but worth a bet as the Thunder are just dominating right now.
The Thunder are the league’s best team against bottom-ten teams with a +20.3 Net Rating. The Spurs are one of the league’s worst against good teams with a -15.3 Net Rating.
The two games this season between these teams both saw the Thunder win by 26+. I think they can handle -11.
Thunder -11
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets Betting Tips:
A Finals rematch, this should be fun.
The Heat are playing some outstanding basketball right now with five straight wins and a 9-2 record over their last eleven games. They have an 8-1-1 record ATS over this stretch.
Miami’s defense has really been doing the job with the second best Defensive Rating in the NBA over their last ten games. This team isn’t afraid of anybody and I think they bring their A-game tonight.
Denver has played well with four straight wins, but none of those teams were quite on this level. They are a great team, don’t get me wrong, but they aren’t underdog killers like you’d expect. They have just a 14-13-1 record against the spread as a home favorite this year and a 22-26-2 ATS record as a favorite overall.
Denver may very well win, but it won’t be easy and I think this line should be closer to two.
Heat +5
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