The Cricket World Cup gets underway on Thursday but before the tournament begins in Ahmedabad there is just enough time for us to take a look at some of the other big outright markets for the competition, beginning with the top batsman.
The biggest and best batters in the world get selected for this tournament and in a competition where plenty of runs are expected, a large number might be needed to be the leading scorer and emulate Rohit Sharma who led the scoring four years ago.
Recent Winners
2019 – Rohit Sharma (648)
2015 – Martin Guptill (547)
2011 – Tillakaratne Dilshan (500)
2007 – Matthew Hayden (659)
2003 – Sachin Tendulkar (673)
1999 – Rahul Dravid (461)
Market Leaders
We have two Indians at the top of the market for the top batter in this tournament with Shubman Gill being the 7/1 favourite to lead the run charts. There is no doubting that he is a class act and arrives into this tournament in decent form having made centuries in two of his last four ODI innings. The fact that he opens the batting might propel him above one of two other market leaders so there is a lot to like about the Kolkata Knight Riders ace.
His teammate Virat Kohli comes next at 10/1 but there is a question mark over him in terms of both current form and indeed whether he will play every match of a tournament which is going to demand plenty of the players both with the action on the field and the travel away from it. The last thing you would want is to invest in Kohli and then see him given the day off against a Netherlands or a Bangladesh where he could fill his boots. If he does play though he should score well but he might need Gill to fail to get enough crease time.
I believe Babar Azam is the best player in the world in this format of the game and the 11/1 on him is certainly an attractive price. He does come with an obvious negative in that he is the captain of the team who are going to be done no favours in this tournament and that might take its toll but if his bat does the talking you would imagine it will make a loud noise. Babar averages a pretty ridiculous 58.16 in ODI cricket so nine ‘average’ innings gets him into the 520 range for runs but you would imagine there will be a big innings or two from him. He’s a leading runner despite the obvious concern.
Rohit Sharma top scored in this tournament four years ago and he is a 12/1 shot to do again in home conditions. The obvious concern is the fact he is captaining the team who are under all sorts of pressure to deliver a home success and he probably isn’t as dominant now as he was four years ago but if he starts the tournament well he is very much a class act and could easily ride some confidence. I prefer others but I wouldn’t rule him out completely.
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Limiting the Field
Whenever we bet on a market like this that has so many runners and riders we need to lessen the field and concentrate on a smaller pool of players in which to pick our bets out from. There are a number of factors we can use to get the field reduced a little and know where to concentrate.
Firstly it is always worth a look at who plays on which grounds. Certain grounds in any country are higher scoring than others and that is very much the case here. The Wankhede, Bangalore and Kolkata will be high scoring grounds in this competition while the likes of Ahmedabad can turn a bit sharply while Delhi isn’t exactly renowned for batting and the scores in Chennai can be on the low side as well.
Another way to whittle down the field is to take players from the sides who you think will make the semi-finals. It might only be an extra innings but it could be the difference between winning or not, or even making the top four or not. The other thing to remember is to take someone who will bat high up in their team’s batting order. While we will see some pyrotechnics from those lower down the order players guaranteed to get nine decent innings will outscore the cameos more often than not.
Profile
With that in mind, I’m looking for a player who is going to bat in the top three for India, England, Australia or South Africa, the four sides who I believe will make the semi-finals of the tournament, or for someone who is a genuine class act for one of the other teams who will be competitive. Having applied those filters I have come up with a couple of players that I like for main bets and I’ll have a little dabble on someone at a bit of a monster price.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of players with the first of them being Babar Azam. As I said above, I believe he is the best player in the world in this format of the game and with Bangladesh playing four matches in Bangalore and Kolkata he could have plenty of chance to fill his boots. The downside is that he plays twice in Chennai but South Africa aren’t likely to bring much of an attack to trouble him. Babar averages over 50 in this format of the game and with his side having a point to prove I think the captain will score big in this tournament. He is the one they all bat around in the Pakistan side and the 11/1 on him feels a couple of points too big at least.
The other player I’ll take a chance on is Pathum Nissanka. He probably didn’t have the Asia Cup campaign that he would have wanted but he has had a couple of decent efforts here in India in the warm up games and I think these pitches are ideal for his game. He is the opening batter that Sri Lanka all bat around and with Kusal Mendis and Kusal Perera around him they give him the chance find his feet in the innings before he explodes into life. Sri Lanka play the majority of their matches in Lucknow, Wankhede and Bangalore which are high scoring grounds and at 66/1 he is certainly overpriced.
Tips
Back B.Azam Top Tournament Batter (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 11.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Back P.Nissanka Top Tournament Batter (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
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