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MLB Betting Tips for April 8th, 2024.
2-1 last time on Patreon.
W Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
L Astros/Rangers Over 10 Runs
W Padres/Giants Under 4.5 Runs First 5 Innings (-125)
Dodgers got it done in the top of the fifth. Astros/Rangers landed at nine runs.
Padres/Giants was a nail biter as there were four runs scored in the top of the first, but then none for the rest of the game.
I am slowly introducing 2024 stats into the System. Right now I am just going with the last two weeks stats for offenses and bullpens, and the left/right splits. The splits I am taking with a big grain of salt as a couple games can really flip things this early in the season.
Sticking with a a half-unit bet on all MLB bets until this weekend at the earliest when we have a full two weeks of games.
A lot of games look good tonight and I had to make some tough cuts. I’ve narrowed it down to four bets. Today’s Patreon post is free below.
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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips:
CHW – Tanner Banks
CLE – Triston McKenzie
The Guardians have started hot with a 7-2 record thus far while the White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball at just 1-8 thus far.
Chicago has been one of the worst offenses thus far with just a .196 batting average and a 71 wRC+. McKenzie had a rough first start against Seattle, but I expect him to be much better here. He’s been a better pitcher at home throughout his career with a 3.36 FIP in Cleveland as opposed to a 4.61 FIP on the road.
The White Sox are doing a bullpen day which probably isn’t going to go great. They have a bullpen 4.88 ERA/5.82 FIP thus far with big walks and big homer numbers. I think things are going to get worse for them too as they have played mostly cold games early.
The Guardians haven’t shown much power early, but they make a lot of contact and don’t strike out often. They’ll find a way.
Guardians -1.5 (-116)
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Miami Marlins at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
MIA – Jesús Luzardo
NYY – Nestor Cortes
The Marlins have been the MLB’s worst team at just 1-9 thus far. Luzardo is a good pitcher, but it’s hard to have much confidence in the pieces surrounding him.
Miami’s bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball thus far with a 6.11 ERA. The Yankees offense might not be able to get to Luzardo, but they will definitely get to this bullpen.
Cortes is a solid pitcher with a great match-up. The Marlins have just a 50 wRC+ against lefties thus far. It is a small sample, but at the same time they have the second most plate appearances against lefties thus far.
Yankees Moneyline (-142)
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
NYM – Julio Teheran
ATL – Charlie Morton
If you only look at the payrolls of these two teams, you might think that the talent level was kind of close. You would be very wrong. The Braves are such a better team top-to-bottom and it’s not all that close.
Teheran is a bargain hunting special by David Stearns and not someone I expect to have success against the Braves. He had a 4.40 ERA/4.93 FIP last season. Low strikeouts and a very favorable BABIP did him a lot of favors. He made one start against the Braves and gave up nine runs on eleven hits with three homers. A repeat of that performance here is not out of the question as the Braves offense might actually be better this season.
Charlie Morton had a 3.64 ERA/3.87 FIP last season and looked solid in his first start. The Mets offense has started extremely slow with just a 57 wRC+ against righties thus far.
This is the System’s top play of the day.
Braves -1.5 (-114)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
ARI – Zac Gallen
COL – Kyle Freeland
In his first two starts of the season, Freeland has allowed ten runs on ten hits (against Arizona) and seven runs on nine hits. Both of those starts were on the road and now he starts at the worst hitter’s park in baseball.
Gallen is a Cy Young contender who has started hot with a 0.82 ERA/3.18 FIP in his first two starts. I know it’s Coors, but the Rockies offense isn’t scaring anyone. I should note that winds are blowing in with temps in the 50s F, good pitching weather.
Weird things can happen at this park, but I just can’t imagine trusting Freeland in any way right now.
Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
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